It may be December and the end of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has come and gone, but someone forgot to tell Mother Nature.
A system of low pressure in the Central Atlantic has a 50 percent chance of strengthening into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next five days as it meanders northeast over the next few days, according to a special tropical weather outlook from the Nspantionspanl Hurricspanne Center.
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Ten named storms have formed in the Atlantic in December since 1950. The most recent December storm was in 2013, which was identified during post-season analysis and never given a name, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University meteorologist.
“An area of low pressure over the south-central North Atlantic Ocean is expected to sit over warm water for much of this week. Due to this, there is concern that the storm can take on tropical characteristics as thunderstorms build near its center,” said AccuWespanther Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
The tropical system is expected to strengthen throughout the week and may become an organized tropical depression or subtropical storm as early as the middle of this week.
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If this system does strengthen, it would become Owen.
To become a named storm, maximum sustained winds must reach 39 mph.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 8:45 a.m. Dec. 6:
What’s out there and where is it?
A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
How likely is it to strengthen?
Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during the next few days.
By Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting potential of tropical transition after that time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium 40 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: medium 50 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Areas most likely to be impacted as the storm moves over the Atlantic will be Bermuda and the Azores, according to AccuWespanther.
However, it’s possible rough surf could make it as far west as Florida’s Atlantic coast if the storm becomes strong enough.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
Tropical forecast over next five days
See the National Hurricane Center’s five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.
What’s out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What’s next?
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